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	<title>Comments on: They’ll Be Singin’ the Blues in Berlin</title>
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	<link>http://referees.worldcupblog.org/news/they%e2%80%99ll-be-singin%e2%80%99-the-blues-in-berlin.html</link>
	<description>World Cup 2006 - Germany</description>
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		<title>By: Tamori</title>
		<link>http://referees.worldcupblog.org/news/they%e2%80%99ll-be-singin%e2%80%99-the-blues-in-berlin.html/comment-page-1#comment-774</link>
		<dc:creator>Tamori</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 08 Jul 2006 09:26:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://referees.worldcupblog.org/news/they%e2%80%99ll-be-singin%e2%80%99-the-blues-in-berlin.html#comment-774</guid>
		<description>It seems strange to me to suggest calling fouls and awarding penalties based on maths and statistics. How do you calculate the odds of scoring on a particular play? How do you calculate a player&#039;s chances of scoring a penalty in a given situation? It&#039;s completely impossible to model mathematically.

Besides, penalties do not necessarily result from illegal play that prevented a goal opportunity, they can also be called for dangerous play, handballs etc. The only thing that depends on the circumstances of a play is the colour of the card that is given following the foul, i.e. last defender=red card.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It seems strange to me to suggest calling fouls and awarding penalties based on maths and statistics. How do you calculate the odds of scoring on a particular play? How do you calculate a player&#8217;s chances of scoring a penalty in a given situation? It&#8217;s completely impossible to model mathematically.</p>
<p>Besides, penalties do not necessarily result from illegal play that prevented a goal opportunity, they can also be called for dangerous play, handballs etc. The only thing that depends on the circumstances of a play is the colour of the card that is given following the foul, i.e. last defender=red card.</p>
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		<title>By: Sam</title>
		<link>http://referees.worldcupblog.org/news/they%e2%80%99ll-be-singin%e2%80%99-the-blues-in-berlin.html/comment-page-1#comment-768</link>
		<dc:creator>Sam</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 08 Jul 2006 00:09:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://referees.worldcupblog.org/news/they%e2%80%99ll-be-singin%e2%80%99-the-blues-in-berlin.html#comment-768</guid>
		<description>David, I think you&#039;re missing the point. The purpose of a penalty kick is the *punish* a team for having fouled a player. It&#039;s not just to get the odds back to 50-50. 

You say that a 53% advantage for the fouling team is ok by you. But it&#039;s not just a 53% advantage. If fouls in the penalty area don&#039;t get called, there would be far more fouls, leading to whichever team fouls the most getting more than a 53% advantage and, more importantly, a lot of dangerous and reckless play, possibly causing injuries.

If the police catch a man who has just stolen $1000, they don&#039;t just make him give back the grand, they also put him in prison. Just giving back the money is the equivalent to what you seem to be aiming for: returning everything to the state it was before. However, the prison term is there to *deter* people from robbing money, or commiting cynical fouls that disrupt game-play and possibly injure players.

Now if your saying that the penalty should maybe be moved back a little, to lower the odds of scoring just a little bit, well that&#039;s fine by me. But trying to make things so that the state of the world is identical to what it was pre-foul... that&#039;s not the purpose of a penalty.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>David, I think you&#8217;re missing the point. The purpose of a penalty kick is the *punish* a team for having fouled a player. It&#8217;s not just to get the odds back to 50-50. </p>
<p>You say that a 53% advantage for the fouling team is ok by you. But it&#8217;s not just a 53% advantage. If fouls in the penalty area don&#8217;t get called, there would be far more fouls, leading to whichever team fouls the most getting more than a 53% advantage and, more importantly, a lot of dangerous and reckless play, possibly causing injuries.</p>
<p>If the police catch a man who has just stolen $1000, they don&#8217;t just make him give back the grand, they also put him in prison. Just giving back the money is the equivalent to what you seem to be aiming for: returning everything to the state it was before. However, the prison term is there to *deter* people from robbing money, or commiting cynical fouls that disrupt game-play and possibly injure players.</p>
<p>Now if your saying that the penalty should maybe be moved back a little, to lower the odds of scoring just a little bit, well that&#8217;s fine by me. But trying to make things so that the state of the world is identical to what it was pre-foul&#8230; that&#8217;s not the purpose of a penalty.</p>
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		<title>By: Doug</title>
		<link>http://referees.worldcupblog.org/news/they%e2%80%99ll-be-singin%e2%80%99-the-blues-in-berlin.html/comment-page-1#comment-758</link>
		<dc:creator>Doug</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Jul 2006 11:35:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://referees.worldcupblog.org/news/they%e2%80%99ll-be-singin%e2%80%99-the-blues-in-berlin.html#comment-758</guid>
		<description>For anybody who cares, I have done a detailed statistical analysis of all of the referees and teams for the tournament at:

http://webpages.charter.net/dmarshak/WCBlog/analysis.htm

It&#039;s part of my blog for my friends on my trip to Germany, so you can skip all the other crud if you would like.  Yes, I am a referee, and yes, I like math.  I find all of this discussion nteresting.  The stats don&#039;t really prove a whole lot, but they certainly suggest that some of the comments being thrown around by the press and a few coaches are nothing more than mindless blather...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For anybody who cares, I have done a detailed statistical analysis of all of the referees and teams for the tournament at:</p>
<p><a href="http://webpages.charter.net/dmarshak/WCBlog/analysis.htm" rel="nofollow">http://webpages.charter.net/dmarshak/WCBlog/analysis.htm</a></p>
<p>It&#8217;s part of my blog for my friends on my trip to Germany, so you can skip all the other crud if you would like.  Yes, I am a referee, and yes, I like math.  I find all of this discussion nteresting.  The stats don&#8217;t really prove a whole lot, but they certainly suggest that some of the comments being thrown around by the press and a few coaches are nothing more than mindless blather&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: John</title>
		<link>http://referees.worldcupblog.org/news/they%e2%80%99ll-be-singin%e2%80%99-the-blues-in-berlin.html/comment-page-1#comment-755</link>
		<dc:creator>John</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Jul 2006 00:27:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://referees.worldcupblog.org/news/they%e2%80%99ll-be-singin%e2%80%99-the-blues-in-berlin.html#comment-755</guid>
		<description>Raybron, I simply feel that the still picture is misleading.  I would ask you to refer to the match highlight video at http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com.  If anything, the defender&#039;s original stab at the ball was far more vicious.  Your picture is misleading because it suggests a karate kick... rather than the fact the the defender was actually falling on his back when he committed the foul.  I&#039;m not saying it wasn&#039;t a foul, I&#039;m just saying it was far from as brutal as you are trying to make it out to be.  I may be an idiot but at least I don&#039;t post lame jokes about karate and laugh to myself about them.

Pat, you say that, &quot;A foul is a foul, no matter where, when, and how important it is to the game.&quot;  This could not be farther from the truth.  We have talked often about game management skills by referees and they obviously are more lenient within the box than, say, at midfield.  The grabbing that goes on during a corner kick would not be allowed at midfield and, because of this, the players know they can get away with more.  I just think it is sad to see a referee&#039;s decision decide the game.  (Perhaps this was better though than seeing the game go to PKs)  I think if FIFA used video replay to fine and suspend blatant dives then this would cut down on the use of the tactic in general which would make the job of the referee easier.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Raybron, I simply feel that the still picture is misleading.  I would ask you to refer to the match highlight video at <a href="http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com" rel="nofollow">http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com</a>.  If anything, the defender&#8217;s original stab at the ball was far more vicious.  Your picture is misleading because it suggests a karate kick&#8230; rather than the fact the the defender was actually falling on his back when he committed the foul.  I&#8217;m not saying it wasn&#8217;t a foul, I&#8217;m just saying it was far from as brutal as you are trying to make it out to be.  I may be an idiot but at least I don&#8217;t post lame jokes about karate and laugh to myself about them.</p>
<p>Pat, you say that, &#8220;A foul is a foul, no matter where, when, and how important it is to the game.&#8221;  This could not be farther from the truth.  We have talked often about game management skills by referees and they obviously are more lenient within the box than, say, at midfield.  The grabbing that goes on during a corner kick would not be allowed at midfield and, because of this, the players know they can get away with more.  I just think it is sad to see a referee&#8217;s decision decide the game.  (Perhaps this was better though than seeing the game go to PKs)  I think if FIFA used video replay to fine and suspend blatant dives then this would cut down on the use of the tactic in general which would make the job of the referee easier.</p>
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		<title>By: Pat</title>
		<link>http://referees.worldcupblog.org/news/they%e2%80%99ll-be-singin%e2%80%99-the-blues-in-berlin.html/comment-page-1#comment-753</link>
		<dc:creator>Pat</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Jul 2006 20:14:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://referees.worldcupblog.org/news/they%e2%80%99ll-be-singin%e2%80%99-the-blues-in-berlin.html#comment-753</guid>
		<description>John, when you said &quot;but I agree that it should not be called… whether or not it was a foul&quot;... I don&#039;t understand why it wouldn&#039;t be called if it was a foul. Firstly I believe it was an obvious foul, he was kicked/tripped. Secondly, that leads to a penalty kick as it&#039;s in the penalty area. 

My understanding of what you were saying was that Henry went down because he thought there wasn&#039;t much of a chance for him to score staying up. If that&#039;s so... why would the Portuguese player even do anything stupid like that? It was a dumb mistake that cost them a place in the final. The referee can&#039;t NOT call a foul because he thinks there was no scoring chance. A foul is a foul, no matter where, when, and how important it is to the game.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>John, when you said &#8220;but I agree that it should not be called… whether or not it was a foul&#8221;&#8230; I don&#8217;t understand why it wouldn&#8217;t be called if it was a foul. Firstly I believe it was an obvious foul, he was kicked/tripped. Secondly, that leads to a penalty kick as it&#8217;s in the penalty area. </p>
<p>My understanding of what you were saying was that Henry went down because he thought there wasn&#8217;t much of a chance for him to score staying up. If that&#8217;s so&#8230; why would the Portuguese player even do anything stupid like that? It was a dumb mistake that cost them a place in the final. The referee can&#8217;t NOT call a foul because he thinks there was no scoring chance. A foul is a foul, no matter where, when, and how important it is to the game.</p>
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		<title>By: Joe</title>
		<link>http://referees.worldcupblog.org/news/they%e2%80%99ll-be-singin%e2%80%99-the-blues-in-berlin.html/comment-page-1#comment-748</link>
		<dc:creator>Joe</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Jul 2006 16:30:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://referees.worldcupblog.org/news/they%e2%80%99ll-be-singin%e2%80%99-the-blues-in-berlin.html#comment-748</guid>
		<description>C. Ronaldo was booed by all the non-Portuguese spectators throughout the whole match. He is known to be very inventive when it comes to falling to the ground to get the referee&#039;s attention and unfortunately that kind of tactic doesn&#039;t really pay in the long run, because eventually the officials become distrustful. His gamesmanship then works to his disadvantage when a *real* foul is committed on him and the ref&#039; does not blow his whistle because he thinks the player has dived again (not that I think that Ronaldo was fouled by Sagnol as he claimed).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>C. Ronaldo was booed by all the non-Portuguese spectators throughout the whole match. He is known to be very inventive when it comes to falling to the ground to get the referee&#8217;s attention and unfortunately that kind of tactic doesn&#8217;t really pay in the long run, because eventually the officials become distrustful. His gamesmanship then works to his disadvantage when a *real* foul is committed on him and the ref&#8217; does not blow his whistle because he thinks the player has dived again (not that I think that Ronaldo was fouled by Sagnol as he claimed).</p>
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		<title>By: Raybron</title>
		<link>http://referees.worldcupblog.org/news/they%e2%80%99ll-be-singin%e2%80%99-the-blues-in-berlin.html/comment-page-1#comment-746</link>
		<dc:creator>Raybron</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Jul 2006 14:02:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://referees.worldcupblog.org/news/they%e2%80%99ll-be-singin%e2%80%99-the-blues-in-berlin.html#comment-746</guid>
		<description>Joe- Excellent point on Scolari.  Sure he went crazy when it was awarded, but that is his job, and even he was man enough after the match to admit that his initial reaction was wrong.  The Ronaldo play, that many are calling a &quot;dive&quot; I don&#039;t really know was a &quot;dive&quot; so much as Ronaldo just going through the air for a header and missing and then trying to see if he could get a PK out of it.  It wasn&#039;t a penalty, and I don&#039;t think I have read a single report that has said that it was, but I don&#039;t begrudge Scolari for arguing the point.  Again, it is his job to stand up for his team through thick and thin, and he gave France credit saying they deserved the victory.  He may be a bit overly emotional sometimes but I also respect him very much as a coach.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Joe- Excellent point on Scolari.  Sure he went crazy when it was awarded, but that is his job, and even he was man enough after the match to admit that his initial reaction was wrong.  The Ronaldo play, that many are calling a &#8220;dive&#8221; I don&#8217;t really know was a &#8220;dive&#8221; so much as Ronaldo just going through the air for a header and missing and then trying to see if he could get a PK out of it.  It wasn&#8217;t a penalty, and I don&#8217;t think I have read a single report that has said that it was, but I don&#8217;t begrudge Scolari for arguing the point.  Again, it is his job to stand up for his team through thick and thin, and he gave France credit saying they deserved the victory.  He may be a bit overly emotional sometimes but I also respect him very much as a coach.</p>
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		<title>By: Raybron</title>
		<link>http://referees.worldcupblog.org/news/they%e2%80%99ll-be-singin%e2%80%99-the-blues-in-berlin.html/comment-page-1#comment-745</link>
		<dc:creator>Raybron</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Jul 2006 13:48:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://referees.worldcupblog.org/news/they%e2%80%99ll-be-singin%e2%80%99-the-blues-in-berlin.html#comment-745</guid>
		<description>Everyone sign up for:

JOHN&#039;S KARATE FOOTBALL!

Mid-air kicks at opponents&#039; legs encouraged!

See if you can guess what every player on the pitch is intending to win a prize!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Everyone sign up for:</p>
<p>JOHN&#8217;S KARATE FOOTBALL!</p>
<p>Mid-air kicks at opponents&#8217; legs encouraged!</p>
<p>See if you can guess what every player on the pitch is intending to win a prize!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Raybron</title>
		<link>http://referees.worldcupblog.org/news/they%e2%80%99ll-be-singin%e2%80%99-the-blues-in-berlin.html/comment-page-1#comment-744</link>
		<dc:creator>Raybron</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Jul 2006 13:43:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://referees.worldcupblog.org/news/they%e2%80%99ll-be-singin%e2%80%99-the-blues-in-berlin.html#comment-744</guid>
		<description>&quot;Was it really the right call? Raybron, your picture proves absolutely nothing and your excessive confidence in it as tangible proof is laughable… but I digress. David, I’m not much for your math but I agree that it should not be called… whether or not it was a foul. It was obvious that, to some extent, Henry sold the call. I believe that he went down because he felt that it was the best way to create a scoring chance. If he thought that staying on his feet would have led to a sure goal then I feel that he would not have gone down. For this reason I do not think it should have been called. That being said, any tackle like that in the box is just ill-advised on the part of the defense.&quot;

Ah, okay, so a picture showing someone getting directly kicked in the leg in the box is insufficient evidence for you but apparently we should take your MIND READING at face value.  Congratulations, you are an idiot.  I&#039;m not sure exactly what league the kind of kick shown in that picture is not a foul, but you seem like an incredibly imaginative person with your mind-reading skills, so I&#039;m sure you can entertain us all by coming up with something great.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Was it really the right call? Raybron, your picture proves absolutely nothing and your excessive confidence in it as tangible proof is laughable… but I digress. David, I’m not much for your math but I agree that it should not be called… whether or not it was a foul. It was obvious that, to some extent, Henry sold the call. I believe that he went down because he felt that it was the best way to create a scoring chance. If he thought that staying on his feet would have led to a sure goal then I feel that he would not have gone down. For this reason I do not think it should have been called. That being said, any tackle like that in the box is just ill-advised on the part of the defense.&#8221;</p>
<p>Ah, okay, so a picture showing someone getting directly kicked in the leg in the box is insufficient evidence for you but apparently we should take your MIND READING at face value.  Congratulations, you are an idiot.  I&#8217;m not sure exactly what league the kind of kick shown in that picture is not a foul, but you seem like an incredibly imaginative person with your mind-reading skills, so I&#8217;m sure you can entertain us all by coming up with something great.</p>
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		<title>By: David</title>
		<link>http://referees.worldcupblog.org/news/they%e2%80%99ll-be-singin%e2%80%99-the-blues-in-berlin.html/comment-page-1#comment-742</link>
		<dc:creator>David</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Jul 2006 10:07:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://referees.worldcupblog.org/news/they%e2%80%99ll-be-singin%e2%80%99-the-blues-in-berlin.html#comment-742</guid>
		<description>Joe, I agree with your assessment of this World Cup as a lottery. The officiating decisions, the freak hits, the unlucky misses, the penalty shoot-outs: it doesn&#039;t seem as though the outcome of games has a lot to do with skill.

The sad part is, things wouldn&#039;t be this way if there were more scoring. Eliminating the error-prone offsides rule probably wouldn&#039;t help, contrary to the previously-expressed opinion of the original poster; the consensus seems to be that it would discourage defenders from ever attacking.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Joe, I agree with your assessment of this World Cup as a lottery. The officiating decisions, the freak hits, the unlucky misses, the penalty shoot-outs: it doesn&#8217;t seem as though the outcome of games has a lot to do with skill.</p>
<p>The sad part is, things wouldn&#8217;t be this way if there were more scoring. Eliminating the error-prone offsides rule probably wouldn&#8217;t help, contrary to the previously-expressed opinion of the original poster; the consensus seems to be that it would discourage defenders from ever attacking.</p>
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